Shaheds over Europe
On the very day I was working on this piece, Poland and Romania were forced to sound air raid sirens and scramble their air forces. In Romania, it was triggered by the appearance of a Russian drone that remained in its airspace for nearly an hour. In Poland, the alarm went off because a drone had already approached the border after passing over the Ukrainian city of Kovel. And just days earlier, when as many as twenty Russian drones entered Polish airspace, Warsaw decided not to take any chances: the sirens wailed, jets were scrambled, and the airport in Lublin was shut down.
These incidents demonstrate an undeniable reality: Vladimir Putin’s aerial war against Europe is becoming systemic — unfolding in parallel with yet another round of Russian-Belarusian military exercises that are also unnerving Ukraine’s neighbors. It hardly needs explaining that the sight of Russian drones in NATO airspace was a profound shock to citizens and governments alike. And not only to them. I myself, though I had long warned of such a scenario, could hardly believe my eyes that night when, from a shelter in Lviv, I watched Shaheds heading both toward the city and in the direction of Poland’s border. What had been theoretical predictions turned suddenly into reality: the war, long predicted to spill beyond Ukraine, had crossed the line. Because this is not simply Russia’s war against Ukraine — it is Putin’s war against the West, against everyone who supports Ukraine.
Western leaders, however, continue to act as if nothing extraordinary has happened, while Ukraine’s neighbors do their best to respond responsibly to Russian provocations. But everyone knows this is an illusion. If the Kremlin persists in attacking Europe with cheap drones, whose presence in NATO skies will never be “officially” acknowledged, then the Alliance will have to scramble jets and close airports again and again. Central Europe could soon find itself in a permanent state of instability. And all this while no one — neither now nor before — seeks direct conflict with Russia. But what is to be done if Moscow is ready to strike, even under the cover of “anonymity”?
Some steps are being taken. Polish forces are already beginning to train with Ukrainian instructors in counter-drone tactics. But that is hardly sufficient. The real solution would be joint patrols of Ukrainian airspace. Kyiv has raised this idea since 2022. At the time, I could understand the arguments of European leaders who feared that shooting down Russian aircraft over Ukraine might provoke direct confrontation with Moscow. But there are no Russian planes left in Ukrainian skies. Missiles are launched from Russian territory itself. The only explanation why Western allies still refuse to shoot down Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine is fear. And fear is Putin’s greatest advantage.
Measured in resources, money, and technology, the West surpasses Russia many times over. But fear nullifies that advantage. Fear enables Putin to stage one provocation after another, to cross one red line after the next. The logic is simple: if NATO were to patrol Ukraine’s western and southern skies jointly, not a single Shahed would reach Poland or Romania, while Ukraine could concentrate on protecting its center and east. But the logic of fear is a poor ally. So European capitals will keep demanding more air defense systems for themselves, while avoiding the very solution that could truly halt Putin. And here again, the leadership of the United States is indispensable. Only if such a plan is advanced as a joint American-European strategy can fear be pushed aside.
The same applies to sanctions. Russia’s drone war against Europe should have made tougher sanctions inevitable. President Donald Trump has already demanded that Europe sanction China, India, and other economic sponsors of the Kremlin, pledging that the United States will join in. This is the only logical path: to cut off Moscow’s energy revenues together. Otherwise, sanctions will once again turn into a demonstration of Western impotence in the face of the Moscow-Beijing axis. Yet as Washington and European capitals continue to calculate their own potential losses, Putin keeps advancing step by step.
In this game of fear and excuses, there is only one winner so far. He sits in the Kremlin. Unless the West changes the logic of its actions, Shaheds will keep flying — not only over Kovel and Lviv, but also over Warsaw and Bucharest. And perhaps farther still, into places where their appearance would have seemed unthinkable only yesterday.